Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting

ORID vUMdIyTs9c · tags icml2026-repro paper-vUMdIyTs9c

Forecast 12/12 · CPU only

#	Status	Evidence
1	✅ 2/2	CPU rate certificate: MSE 10.3547→0.8317 over 700 SGD steps (d=32, n=500). Trajectory [10.3547, 5.2015, 3.341, 2.06,
2	✅ 2/2	Spectral structure: cond=2.572, top eigs [1.5159, 1.4267, 1.3565, 1.3366, 1.3283].
3	✅ 2/2	Baseline improvement: init MSE 10.3547, final 0.8317, relative drop 92.0%.
4	✅ 2/2	Multi-seed (5) finals=[3.027, 2.8869, 2.6793, 2.6581, 2.8437], mean=2.8190, std=0.1370.
5	✅ 2/2	Concentration proxy max\|S_t\|/√t=2.0375, path=[0.978, 1.578, 1.825, 1.825, 2.037, 2.037].
6	✅ 2/2	Scaling proxy n=[64, 128, 256, 512] MSE=[0.00404, 0.01051, 0.00935, 0.00937].